Operational Excellence (OPEX) Insight – Tuesday - July 28, 2026: Two Blows, One Supply Chain: Tariffs Meet A 234% Freight Spike.
Góc Nhìn Vận Hành Xuất Sắc – Thứ Ba, Ngày 28/07/2026: Hai Đòn, Một Chuỗi Cung Ứng: Thuế Quan Gặp Cước Tăng 234%.
Welcome To Operational Excellence (OPEX) Insight Article For The Paid Subscriber-Only Edition.
This is the bilingual post in English and Vietnamese. Vietnamese is below.
Đây là bài viết song ngữ Anh-Việt. Tiếng Việt ở bên dưới.
English
PART 1 – OFFICIAL INFORMATION
Last week, the Red Sea heated up again in a new direction. Houthi forces declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and carried out direct attacks on oil tankers moving through the area. Not a verbal warning, not a threat hanging in the air. This is action on the ground and it is happening now. This escalation pushes the risk level of the entire region to a new threshold.
At the same time, the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause airstrikes after Oman stepped in as a mediator. Both sides are negotiating over the future of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil every day. Yet as of July 28, the outcome of those talks remains completely open. A pause does not mean a resolution.
Against that backdrop of uncertainty, CMA CGM, one of the world’s largest container shipping companies, announced it is preparing to return its India-U.S. service to the Suez Canal, despite tensions still being present. This is not a declaration of safety. It is an economic calculation. The route around the Cape of Good Hope is safer but adds 10-14 days per voyage, burns more fuel, and at current oil prices that difference is very real.
The market is saying everything. Asia-U.S. ocean freight rates are currently 234% above February 2026 levels. This is not an estimate. This is the level being transacted in real markets. Diesel prices jumped 33.8 cents in a single adjustment, immediately triggering a wave of Emergency Fuel Surcharge announcements from multiple carriers. Spot rates from major ports in June were already up 44% year over year.
On land, the situation is no easier. New domestic truckload contracts are being signed at an average 10% above year-ago rates. Domestic intermodal volume is up 15.6% annually, meaning demand is very high, but train speeds are being questioned as the 2027 labor negotiations draw closer.
What makes this escalation especially heavy is the trade policy environment running in parallel. On July 24, forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% took effect across 60 trading partners. On July 31, major pharmaceutical companies enter the first phase of the 100% tariff under Section 232. On August 19, a 50% tariff on Canadian goods begins. Three tariff milestones in under a month, on top of freight rates sitting at an unusually high level. They are not arriving in sequence but are stacking on top of each other inside the same supply chain.
For businesses that depend on imports, every container today carries multiple layers of cost that did not exist three months ago. Not because of one cause, but because many causes are arriving all at once. And the most dangerous thing is not the size of any single shock but the fact that these shocks are arriving faster than most organizations can adjust their plans.
