Operational Excellence (OPEX) Daily Briefing – Friday, November 21, 2025: A 2–3 Year Market Downcycle Ahead: Decoding Market Warning Signals Using the OPEX Framework.
Điểm Tin Operational Excellence (OPEX) Mỗi Ngày – Thứ Sáu, Ngày 21/11/2025: Thị Trường Sắp Bước Vào Chu Kỳ Giảm 2–3 Năm: Giải Mã Cảnh Báo Thị Trường Bằng Khung OPEX.
Welcome to my unique weekday article for the paid subscriber-only edition.
Operational Excellence (OPEX) Daily Briefing – issued on weekdays (Monday to Friday).
Điểm tin Operational Excellence (OPEX) hằng ngày (phát hành các ngày thứ Hai đến thứ Sáu).
This is the bilingual post in English and Vietnamese. Vietnamese is below.
Đây là bài viết song ngữ Anh-Việt. Tiếng Việt ở bên dưới.
Englis
PART 1 – OFFICIAL INFORMATION
On November 21, 2025, major news outlets simultaneously reported an important warning from global financial market analysts: the U.S. and international stock markets may have already peaked and could be entering a 2–3 year downturn cycle. This warning was most prominently highlighted through remarks by Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital in London, who stated that “we are in part of a bubble and liquidity is being drained from the market.”
This information immediately drew attention because it came at a time when many market indicators were showing signs of instability: technology stock valuations rising sharply, speculative money flowing into AI-related sectors, while corporate profits were not increasing correspondingly. The combination of slow growth and high valuations is often a signal that a correction cycle is forming.
In recent weeks, several technology stocks previously seen as “growth engines” have also shown signs of weakening, including the case of a major tech company whose share price dropped sharply despite solid business results. This is evidence of “valuation far exceeding real value-creation capacity”, and it is also a signal many experts associate with the formation of a “speculative bubble.”
At the same time, analytical reports also noted that global liquidity is declining, meaning the flow of money that supported markets throughout the recent growth phase is gradually weakening. Liquidity decline implies that markets become more vulnerable to shocks and less able to sustain high valuation levels.
The fact that a seasoned strategist is forecasting a downturn cycle that could last 2 to 3 years suggests that this is not a “short-term reaction,” but an assessment based on observations of market structure over several consecutive months. According to published analyses, there are three main reasons behind this warning:
(1) Stock valuations—particularly in the technology and AI sectors—have risen sharply and far exceed the pace of actual profit growth.
(2) Global liquidity is weakening, while capital costs are rising, making it more difficult to sustain high prices.
(3) Speculative inflows are excessively large, creating a fragile foundation for continued growth.
These developments have ripple effects beyond the financial sector. For businesses, a market trending toward a 2–3 year downturn means the upcoming operating environment will be:
• More volatile,
• Harder to predict,
• Requiring more flexible operating models and stronger risk-control mechanisms.
In this context, the need for Risk Radar, Early Warning Systems, and data-driven OPEX thinking becomes essential, because businesses not only need to react when risks occur, but must detect early signals to prepare response scenarios.
A notable point is that these warnings come from reputable analytical sources, based on real observations such as valuation fluctuations, capital-flow data, liquidity indicators, and the disconnect between stock prices and corporate financial health. This shows that the seriousness of the situation does not stem from rumors, but from real structural changes in the market’s operating foundation.